The recovery in China's tilapia exports fails to mask the supply pressure.

The price trend of the main tilapia producing areas in southern China is differentiated, showing a different pattern : "Price decrease in Guangdong, Price increase in Guangxi, and Price is stabel in Hainan". Industry analysts pointed out that although the rebound in US orders has led to an increase in tilapia prices in some regions, the industry is still facing multiple challenges : Tilapia on the market but fish fry in short supply.

This week, the purchase price of 500-800g raw fish in the Guangxi production area rose to 8.6 yuan/KG, up 0.3 yuan from the previous week; the price of the same size fish in Guangdong fell slightly by 0.1 yuan to 8.4 yuan/KG; the price in Hainan remained unchanged at 8.2 yuan/KG. An executive of a processing company in Hainan revealed that the growth of orders in the US market has driven an increase in raw material procurement, but Guangdong companies reported that the local supply is sufficient and have not yet followed up with price adjustments.

It is worth noting that due to the prominent problem of raw material shortage in Guangxi, some processing plants were forced to increase prices for purchases.

As the south enters the hot season, the growth rate of tilapia accelerates, and farmers are about to sell the fish in batches. Industry insiders said: "The current fish price can still guarantee the income of farmers, but there is a gap in the supply of seedlings."

In the short term, the game between export demand and raw material supply will continue to dominate the price trend. Processing companies need to balance international orders and domestic production capacity allocation, and the shortage of seedlings may further increase the cost of breeding. The industry calls for increased investment in fry research and development to cope with the long-term supply chain stability challenges.

Reference : YUYIPAI